Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5507 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5507 ATL 05:00 → CLT 06:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 3139 ATL 20:40 → CLT 21:57 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5507 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 05:00	CLT 06:25	5%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 5176 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:24	CLT 07:55	6%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CLT 11:26	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:38	CLT 08:49	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	CLT 13:31	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 11:11	CLT 12:36	13%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 3177 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:41	CLT 23:58	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 18:44	CLT 20:18	15%	7%	1.0%	49%
DL 720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	CLT 20:14	17%	4%	0.6%	56%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	CLT 16:17	18%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 3158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	CLT 18:19	18%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 5041 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 15:06	CLT 16:37	18%	7%	0.8%	52%
DL 3139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLT 21:57	24%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON