Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1479 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:30 → CMH 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 191 ATL 15:20 → CMH 16:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	CMH 09:02	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2200 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:25	CMH 15:59	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	CMH 00:44	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2280 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	CMH 17:34	15%	3%	0.6%	65%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	16%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:03	CMH 23:40	16%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	16%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 191 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 15:20	CMH 16:55	28%	5%	0.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON