Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 192 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 192 ATL 06:05 → DAL 07:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4763 ATL 21:30 → DAL 22:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 192 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:05	DAL 07:10	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DAL 09:21	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4394 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 08:55	DAL 10:05	9%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 1115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	DAL 11:24	13%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	DAL 15:03	15%	2%	0.6%	86%
WN 194 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:10	DAL 15:20	22%	4%	0.6%	59%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	22%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	22%	5%	0.7%	82%
WN 4763 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 21:30	DAL 22:45	32%	9%	0.6%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON