Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 926 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 926 ATL 07:25 → DCA 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 2699 ATL 16:20 → DCA 18:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 06:00	DCA 07:59	7%	3%	1.5%	91%
AA 5050 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 08:58	DCA 10:59	9%	5%	1.6%	83%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	10%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 3976 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATL 10:57	DCA 12:55	13%	4%	0.8%	73%
DL 737 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	DCA 12:42	15%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 197 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 10:45	DCA 12:30	17%	5%	0.6%	46%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	19%	4%	0.7%	72%
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 20:22	DCA 22:20	19%	6%	0.9%	21%
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	21%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 16:58	DCA 18:59	21%	11%	1.6%	25%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	23%	6%	0.7%	58%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	24%	6%	0.7%	60%
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	24%	6%	0.7%	66%
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	24%	6%	0.7%	65%
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	26%	7%	0.7%	57%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	26%	7%	0.7%	59%
WN 4990 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DCA 22:50	27%	10%	0.6%	35%
WN 2699 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:20	DCA 18:15	29%	9%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON