Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2114 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2114 ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3002 ATL 18:20 → DEN 19:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2114 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:25	DEN 07:30	6%	1%	0.5%	98%
UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 07:30	DEN 08:51	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2235 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DEN 08:34	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	DEN 11:05	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	13%	3%	0.5%	91%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:55	DEN 13:00	14%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	15%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 202 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:30	DEN 10:40	17%	2%	0.5%	79%
UA 235 United Flight history →	ATL 16:22	DEN 18:06	18%	5%	0.6%	79%
F9 3293 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:33	DEN 14:00	19%	8%	0.8%	80%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	19%	3%	0.6%	81%
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	19%	6%	0.8%	69%
DL 956 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	DEN 00:23	22%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:54	DEN 22:12	23%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	24%	3%	0.6%	70%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	24%	4%	0.6%	69%
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:53	DEN 22:28	29%	10%	0.8%	64%
WN 3002 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:20	DEN 19:40	33%	7%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON