Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2770 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 2770 ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 21:04 → DFW 22:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2770 American Flight history →	ATL 06:01	DFW 07:33	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	10%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	DFW 11:12	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DFW 08:54	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 3390 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATL 09:43	DFW 11:13	12%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	DFW 12:44	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 891 American Flight history →	ATL 11:21	DFW 12:50	15%	6%	0.8%	81%
AA 1358 American Flight history →	ATL 13:39	DFW 15:10	19%	7%	0.7%	74%
DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	DFW 00:13	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1386 American Flight history →	ATL 15:02	DFW 16:35	20%	7%	0.8%	60%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	21%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	DFW 22:11	22%	5%	0.7%	55%
DL 436 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	DFW 20:18	22%	5%	0.8%	67%
DL 374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:10	DFW 17:27	24%	5%	0.7%	72%
AA 1356 American Flight history →	ATL 16:16	DFW 17:49	24%	7%	0.8%	41%
AA 1376 American Flight history →	ATL 17:34	DFW 19:08	25%	7%	0.9%	43%
AA 1379 American Flight history →	ATL 20:05	DFW 21:36	26%	7%	0.9%	39%
F9 3021 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:54	DFW 12:30	27%	12%	0.8%	69%
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:39	DFW 16:07	34%	15%	0.8%	64%
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:04	DFW 22:35	37%	14%	1.0%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON