Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1704 at 09:33 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1704 ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2306 ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1704 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:33	DSM 10:45	5%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:25	DSM 13:34	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	DSM 17:52	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 2306 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DSM 22:29	17%	4%	0.7%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON