Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3048 ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3131 ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	ECP 08:12	5%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	ECP 10:48	8%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 1359 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	ECP 12:31	11%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	ECP 13:54	12%	3%	0.9%	76%
DL 2494 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:35	ECP 20:46	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	ECP 17:55	13%	5%	0.9%	76%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	ECP 16:12	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 3131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:27	ECP 23:37	15%	5%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON