Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1002 at 12:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	ELP 13:20	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1713 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ELP 20:50	26%	5%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:05 → DAL 07:10WN 192	3h 50m Dallas	DAL 11:00 → ELP 11:40WN 1310	7h 35m	100%	87%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 54m Denver	DEN 11:45 → ELP 13:35UA 792	8h 05m	99%	84%
United Details →	ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532	2h 34m Houston	IAH 10:49 → ELP 11:51UA 6309 · flown by Mesa	6h 46m	97%	83%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → ELP 13:08AA 3506 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	97%	82%
Southwest Details →	ATL 10:00 → MDW 11:00WN 224	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 13:55 → ELP 16:00WN 2774	8h 00m	100%	80%
American Details →	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:50AA 891	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:16 → ELP 17:01AA 3504 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	100%	80%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:30 → ELP 09:19AA 1801	5h 18m	94%	79%
Southwest Details →	ATL 08:55 → DAL 10:05WN 4394	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 13:05 → ELP 13:45WN 4396	6h 50m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ATL 18:20 → DEN 19:40WN 3002	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:55 → ELP 22:50WN 1319	6h 30m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON