Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 299 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 299 ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1158 ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 299 United Flight history →	ATL 06:07	EWR 08:25	3%	1%	0.8%	91%
UA 2053 United Flight history →	ATL 07:15	EWR 09:33	5%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:18	EWR 10:29	7%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:10	EWR 09:24	7%	2%	0.8%	83%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ATL 09:26	EWR 11:44	9%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	EWR 12:21	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
UA 1226 United Flight history →	ATL 12:40	EWR 15:01	14%	6%	0.8%	82%
UA 2763 United Flight history →	ATL 14:31	EWR 17:00	16%	8%	0.8%	73%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:02	EWR 14:16	19%	6%	0.9%	72%
UA 555 United Flight history →	ATL 16:25	EWR 18:54	20%	9%	0.8%	69%
UA 1152 United Flight history →	ATL 19:57	EWR 22:24	20%	8%	0.9%	65%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	EWR 15:24	21%	6%	0.9%	76%
DL 2552 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 00:58	25%	9%	1.1%	70%
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:54	27%	10%	0.9%	66%
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	EWR 22:29	28%	9%	1.0%	65%
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	30%	10%	1.0%	56%
F9 4602 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:40	EWR 01:03	36%	20%	1.6%	56%
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	42%	23%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON