Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1281 ATL 09:06 → EYW 11:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2168 ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	EYW 11:00	14%	2%	2.6%	90%
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	EYW 13:23	15%	3%	2.6%	87%
DL 2815 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	EYW 19:56	18%	5%	6.5%	77%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	EYW 17:23	19%	4%	9.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON