Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1094 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 1094 ATL 08:05 → FLL 09:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 2174 ATL 22:48 → FLL 00:44 · 51% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	FLL 09:59	8%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 1334 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:00	FLL 08:51	8%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 1271 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	FLL 11:03	15%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 1512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	FLL 12:23	15%	3%	0.8%	82%
B6 1797 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:00	FLL 08:52	17%	6%	1.0%	88%
DL 2063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	FLL 13:20	18%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 1341 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:31	FLL 14:27	18%	4%	0.9%	74%
F9 2172 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	FLL 08:33	18%	6%	1.2%	76%
DL 1413 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	FLL 15:41	22%	5%	0.8%	73%
DL 1489 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:58	FLL 21:56	26%	7%	2.7%	67%
DL 2345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	FLL 17:23	26%	7%	1.3%	68%
DL 1295 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:39	FLL 18:40	27%	6%	1.3%	70%
DL 1229 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:45	FLL 00:39	28%	7%	2.0%	69%
DL 1670 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	FLL 19:43	29%	7%	1.9%	63%
B6 517 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 09:10	FLL 11:06	30%	9%	1.1%	57%
DL 1107 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:28	FLL 23:24	32%	8%	2.7%	62%
B6 2097 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:49	FLL 14:40	35%	12%	1.2%	71%
F9 3014 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:53	FLL 16:54	40%	16%	1.7%	56%
B6 1697 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 21:40	FLL 23:35	49%	22%	4.6%	45%
F9 2174 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:48	FLL 00:44	51%	20%	3.5%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON