tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2615 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:16 FSD 19:56 15% 5% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668 2h 38m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → FSD 12:49DL 3534 · flown by SkyWest 6h 24m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 3h 05m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → FSD 15:41DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 2h 24m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → FSD 19:36DL 3578 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 3h 47m Minneapolis MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694 7h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ATL 16:22 → DEN 18:06UA 235 3h 04m Denver DEN 21:10 → FSD 23:53UA 5700 · flown by SkyWest 8h 31m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:50 → FSD 12:10AA 6194 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATL 10:05 → ORD 11:28UA 364 1h 12m Chicago ORD 12:40 → FSD 14:32UA 4443 · flown by GoJet 5h 27m 92% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340 1h 04m Denver DEN 09:55 → FSD 12:35UA 4759 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 93% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:36 → FSD 15:41DL 3538 · flown by SkyWest 4h 24m 67% 59%
AmericanDetails → ATL 19:53 → ORD 21:30AA 1372 1h 00m Chicago ORD 22:30 → FSD 00:18 +1AA 4942 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 74% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON