Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 5830 at 14:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5830 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 14:11	HHH 15:29	11%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ATL 05:00 → CLT 06:25AA 5507 · flown by PSA	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	99%	87%
United Details →	ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25UA 299	2h 12m Newark	EWR 10:37 → HHH 12:52UA 3676 · flown by Republic	6h 45m	99%	87%
American Details →	ATL 06:24 → CLT 07:55AA 5176 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → HHH 12:20AA 3582 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	98%	85%
American Details →	ATL 11:11 → CLT 12:36AA 5039 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Charlotte	CLT 15:09 → HHH 16:25AA 3560 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 06:00 → LGA 08:10DL 404	50m New York	LGA 09:00 → HHH 11:24DL 5618 · flown by Republic	5h 24m	92%	81%
American Details →	ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:45AA 616	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	6h 08m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON