tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Detroit, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 837 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:50 HNL 13:20 12% 4% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646 1h 36m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 07m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 12h 18m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15WN 209 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238 11h 25m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 12h 04m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340 3h 09m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 43m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 13h 28m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 12h 37m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → HNL 14:35UA 1260 14h 05m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 50m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 11h 08m 68% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON