Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4729 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4729 ATL 06:30 → HOU 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 206 ATL 16:05 → HOU 17:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4729 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:30	HOU 07:35	5%	1%	1.6%	92%
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	9%	2%	1.5%	90%
WN 4914 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 09:30	HOU 10:35	12%	2%	1.4%	79%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	HOU 12:10	13%	2%	1.6%	85%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	18%	4%	0.9%	81%
WN 207 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 22:50	HOU 00:10	22%	6%	0.7%	63%
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	23%	5%	0.9%	73%
WN 206 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:05	HOU 17:15	27%	6%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON