Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3036 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 3036 ATL 08:05 → HSV 08:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3171 ATL 19:00 → HSV 19:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	HSV 08:03	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:05	HSV 09:02	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 3068 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:49	HSV 11:44	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:29	HSV 15:29	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 3022 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	HSV 23:01	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 3065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	HSV 20:51	16%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:34	HSV 17:34	17%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	HSV 19:00	17%	3%	0.7%	79%
DL 4762 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 13:21	HSV 13:23	27%	11%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON