Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3125 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 3125 ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 560 ATL 16:25 → IND 18:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IND 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	IND 10:33	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	14%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2657 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	IND 00:41	16%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 3126 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	IND 17:22	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	IND 19:10	19%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	IND 22:27	19%	4%	0.6%	72%
F9 2497 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:47	IND 11:25	21%	7%	0.8%	70%
WN 560 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 16:25	IND 18:05	27%	6%	0.5%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON