Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2328 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2328 ATL 07:25 → JAX 08:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1550 ATL 16:18 → JAX 17:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2328 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	JAX 08:36	6%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	JAX 09:36	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2356 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	JAX 10:43	10%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:48	JAX 12:00	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:37	JAX 13:45	15%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	JAX 15:09	17%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	JAX 16:27	21%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 2276 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	JAX 00:09	22%	4%	1.4%	76%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:51	JAX 19:13	23%	5%	0.9%	64%
DL 2627 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	JAX 17:57	23%	5%	0.9%	72%
DL 1001 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	JAX 23:02	24%	5%	1.0%	69%
DL 2315 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	JAX 21:11	24%	5%	1.3%	57%
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:18	JAX 17:34	39%	11%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON