Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 209 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 209 ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3923 ATL 19:11 → LAS 20:26 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 209 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 06:10	LAS 07:15	6%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 659 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	LAS 08:33	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 777 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	LAS 09:31	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	LAS 11:00	11%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 466 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	LAS 12:02	14%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:15	LAS 14:18	17%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	LAS 17:52	22%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 722 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:34	LAS 19:42	22%	7%	0.7%	63%
DL 825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	LAS 22:35	25%	7%	0.7%	67%
DL 955 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	LAS 21:01	26%	7%	0.6%	68%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:07	LAS 12:29	29%	11%	1.1%	70%
WN 210 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 20:10	LAS 21:30	37%	8%	0.6%	28%
F9 3923 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:11	LAS 20:26	43%	16%	1.5%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024	6h 00m	94%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON