Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 996 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 996 ATL 07:15 → LAX 08:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 763 ATL 19:20 → LAX 20:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:15	LAX 08:48	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	12%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 326 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:35	LAX 13:05	13%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1219 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	LAX 17:22	16%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	20%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 331 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	LAX 22:32	22%	4%	0.6%	72%
AA 2221 American Flight history →	ATL 16:55	LAX 18:42	23%	6%	0.7%	67%
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	25%	4%	0.6%	68%
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	25%	10%	0.9%	69%
DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:20	LAX 20:45	25%	4%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAX 10:30WN 991	6h 20m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521	6h 30m	86%	74%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → LAS 08:33DL 659	1h 13m Las Vegas	LAS 09:46 → LAX 11:00DL 1718	6h 35m	94%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON