Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4595 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 4595 ATL 06:05 → LGA 08:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 3288 ATL 20:22 → LGA 22:43 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4595 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 06:05	LGA 08:30	4%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 404 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:00	LGA 08:10	5%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
AA 4628 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 09:24	LGA 11:49	9%	3%	0.9%	91%
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	10%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	13%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	13%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 4606 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:12	LGA 14:37	13%	4%	1.0%	77%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	15%	4%	0.8%	86%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	16%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	18%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 4605 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 14:58	LGA 17:23	20%	6%	1.0%	61%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	23%	8%	0.8%	72%
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	24%	8%	0.8%	64%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	24%	7%	0.8%	63%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	25%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 4624 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 17:03	LGA 19:28	26%	8%	1.0%	55%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	26%	8%	0.8%	67%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	27%	9%	0.8%	68%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	45%	21%	2.2%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	46%	18%	1.9%	53%
F9 3288 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:22	LGA 22:43	48%	21%	2.2%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON