Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3033 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3033 ATL 08:10 → LIT 08:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2701 ATL 20:59 → LIT 21:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3033 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	LIT 08:42	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 3040 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:31	LIT 11:03	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1347 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:19	LIT 12:49	9%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 3027 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:40	LIT 15:12	11%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 2083 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	LIT 23:41	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 3025 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	LIT 17:55	17%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 2701 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	LIT 21:34	19%	3%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON