Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2471 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2471 ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3499 ATL 15:58 → MCI 17:10 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2471 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	MCI 09:38	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	MCI 11:16	11%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2747 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MCI 12:13	12%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:24	MCI 14:29	14%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 3931 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 10:55	MCI 12:00	14%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	MCI 16:30	19%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1470 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:45	MCI 18:55	23%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 2911 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	MCI 23:58	23%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 1130 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:45	MCI 20:56	23%	4%	0.7%	79%
F9 3499 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:58	MCI 17:10	36%	11%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON