Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 212 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 212 ATL 07:40 → MCO 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3508 ATL 20:30 → MCO 22:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 212 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:40	MCO 09:10	6%	2%	12.8%	88%
DL 2204 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MCO 08:56	8%	2%	12.9%	90%
DL 1213 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:25	MCO 09:56	9%	2%	12.9%	86%
DL 1658 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:25	MCO 10:57	12%	3%	15.6%	85%
DL 664 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	MCO 12:00	13%	3%	16.5%	85%
F9 1242 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:01	MCO 06:40	14%	5%	1.3%	79%
DL 1030 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:25	MCO 13:00	15%	3%	16.5%	81%
WN 215 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 11:30	MCO 13:00	15%	4%	17.2%	68%
DL 1562 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:29	MCO 01:05	21%	6%	17.3%	73%
DL 1372 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:59	MCO 14:34	22%	5%	17.0%	73%
DL 1642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	MCO 15:38	22%	6%	17.2%	51%
DL 2035 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	MCO 19:48	23%	7%	17.3%	57%
DL 1150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	MCO 16:40	23%	7%	16.7%	63%
DL 1742 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:00	MCO 17:47	24%	7%	17.3%	57%
DL 1497 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	MCO 18:50	26%	8%	17.3%	59%
WN 4558 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:15	MCO 20:00	26%	8%	15.6%	27%
F9 3976 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 12:42	MCO 14:23	28%	14%	18.6%	66%
DL 1162 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	MCO 23:58	28%	6%	16.7%	68%
DL 2881 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MCO 20:35	29%	7%	15.6%	62%
DL 1735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:15	MCO 21:53	30%	7%	17.4%	61%
DL 1733 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:25	MCO 23:02	31%	7%	17.1%	65%
F9 4026 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:04	MCO 19:50	33%	16%	17.3%	53%
F9 3508 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	MCO 22:15	36%	15%	17.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON