Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2071 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2071 ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2384 ATL 19:05 → MEM 19:28 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	MEM 09:27	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	MEM 12:32	11%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 2937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	MEM 10:32	13%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:40	MEM 13:57	15%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:08	MEM 15:30	18%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 2001 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:10	MEM 20:35	19%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MEM 23:24	21%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	MEM 18:16	21%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 552 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	MEM 16:47	21%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 1577 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:49	MEM 22:12	22%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2384 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:05	MEM 19:28	24%	5%	0.6%	59%
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:25	MEM 07:47	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON