Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2836 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2836 ATL 07:30 → MIA 09:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 14:29 → MIA 16:33 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	MIA 09:30	9%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 1135 American Flight history →	ATL 05:20	MIA 07:15	9%	2%	1.0%	83%
AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	11%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 2526 American Flight history →	ATL 09:00	MIA 11:07	17%	4%	1.1%	84%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MIA 13:02	19%	4%	1.7%	82%
AA 512 American Flight history →	ATL 10:38	MIA 12:38	22%	6%	2.6%	79%
DL 1579 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:52	MIA 14:55	25%	6%	1.8%	76%
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	26%	9%	1.3%	69%
DL 1234 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:37	MIA 23:39	27%	8%	1.1%	65%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	29%	8%	1.1%	63%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:03	MIA 18:20	30%	8%	1.1%	63%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	31%	8%	1.1%	66%
DL 1631 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:09	MIA 19:25	32%	9%	1.3%	51%
AA 1367 American Flight history →	ATL 19:00	MIA 21:04	32%	10%	1.5%	30%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:47	MIA 13:53	34%	12%	2.5%	74%
F9 3442 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:55	MIA 23:05	40%	17%	1.5%	51%
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:29	MIA 16:33	41%	17%	1.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON