Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2668 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2668 ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3045 ATL 11:58 → MSP 13:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2668 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	MSP 09:00	7%	2%	0.5%	92%
DL 2960 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:44	MSP 10:18	8%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2090 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:55	MSP 11:31	10%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 2901 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	MSP 13:50	14%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 2825 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:31	MSP 16:06	17%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 1310 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MSP 00:39	18%	4%	0.5%	78%
DL 2654 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:38	MSP 18:18	20%	4%	0.5%	71%
DL 2981 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	MSP 17:16	21%	4%	0.5%	74%
DL 1280 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	MSP 21:38	23%	5%	0.5%	69%
F9 3045 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:58	MSP 13:39	27%	9%	0.7%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON