Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3128 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 3128 ATL 07:35 → MSY 08:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1371 ATL 15:44 → MSY 16:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	MSY 08:04	6%	2%	2.9%	94%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:58	MSY 09:29	7%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MSY 11:37	9%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	MSY 14:17	15%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	MSY 15:57	18%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 2224 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	MSY 23:43	21%	5%	2.3%	83%
DL 3132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	MSY 18:07	23%	5%	1.0%	74%
DL 2072 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:07	MSY 22:37	23%	5%	2.9%	73%
DL 1450 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	MSY 20:28	25%	6%	1.9%	74%
WN 234 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MSY 15:20	25%	6%	0.6%	50%
F9 1371 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:44	MSY 16:27	30%	14%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON