Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1178 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1178 ATL 07:25 → ORD 08:35 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 1595 ATL 18:23 → ORD 19:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	ORD 08:35	8%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 364 United Flight history →	ATL 10:05	ORD 11:28	9%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ATL 11:29	ORD 12:52	10%	4%	0.6%	82%
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 07:25	ORD 08:45	10%	4%	0.8%	75%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	12%	4%	0.8%	80%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:18	ORD 14:41	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	ATL 12:13	ORD 13:30	16%	7%	0.9%	75%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:22	ORD 12:34	16%	4%	0.8%	70%
UA 785 United Flight history →	ATL 20:44	ORD 21:59	16%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	17%	7%	0.7%	71%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:02	ORD 14:14	19%	5%	0.8%	76%
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:35	ORD 07:53	20%	6%	1.2%	73%
UA 1046 United Flight history →	ATL 19:04	ORD 20:30	21%	5%	0.6%	63%
AA 4759 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 15:32	ORD 17:00	25%	8%	1.2%	58%
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	25%	7%	0.7%	62%
AA 1372 American Flight history →	ATL 19:53	ORD 21:30	26%	7%	0.9%	43%
DL 2486 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	ORD 20:33	30%	7%	0.7%	66%
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	30%	7%	0.7%	49%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:23	ORD 19:53	39%	14%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON