Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1336 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1336 ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2984 ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:31	ORF 09:09	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	ORF 11:28	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	ORF 12:45	13%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	ORF 15:50	17%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 2731 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:59	ORF 00:45	18%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 2338 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:54	ORF 23:44	19%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:27	ORF 17:12	20%	4%	0.6%	75%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:28	ORF 11:15	21%	9%	0.9%	79%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	ORF 18:54	22%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	22%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON