Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 357 ATL 19:40 → PDX 21:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:27	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	PDX 18:56	16%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 357 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:40	PDX 21:44	17%	4%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 55m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 23m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	ATL 08:00 → MDW 08:55WN 1270	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → PDX 12:25WN 2809	7h 25m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON