Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3270 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 17:02 → PHL 19:20 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:00	PHL 08:10	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 5037 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 09:45	PHL 11:55	13%	6%	1.2%	87%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	PHL 07:15	15%	6%	0.9%	71%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	16%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 5461 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 12:30	PHL 14:39	18%	8%	1.4%	70%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	18%	5%	0.7%	69%
DL 1169 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:05	PHL 17:12	18%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	19%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	21%	6%	0.7%	65%
AA 1590 American Flight history →	ATL 18:29	PHL 20:40	22%	8%	0.8%	59%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	22%	5%	0.7%	62%
AA 621 American Flight history →	ATL 14:15	PHL 16:30	23%	7%	0.7%	65%
F9 2298 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:10	PHL 12:22	30%	11%	0.9%	68%
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:17	PHL 22:33	42%	19%	1.1%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	PHL 19:20	45%	20%	1.0%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON