Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 348 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 348 ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest F9 2607 ATL 18:36 → PHX 19:44 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	11%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PHX 12:03	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	PHX 14:18	18%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:45	PHX 22:39	23%	7%	0.7%	75%
AA 3012 American Flight history →	ATL 18:13	PHX 19:25	24%	9%	0.7%	45%
DL 757 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	PHX 21:34	25%	7%	0.7%	71%
WN 4758 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 15:40	PHX 16:35	32%	8%	0.6%	40%
F9 2607 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:36	PHX 19:44	37%	16%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → PHX 09:40WN 3770	5h 30m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON