Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1380 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1380 ATL 07:30 → PIT 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2583 ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PIT 09:11	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	PIT 10:45	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:08	PIT 15:50	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	PIT 00:50	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 236 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 13:10	PIT 14:50	15%	3%	0.5%	85%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	16%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:14	PIT 23:00	18%	4%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON