Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3103 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3103 ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2807 ATL 23:28 → PNS 23:43 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PNS 08:17	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:39	PNS 10:51	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:50	PNS 13:00	14%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	PNS 15:13	15%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:48	PNS 17:03	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 3059 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:10	PNS 18:23	17%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 3021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	PNS 20:04	18%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 3086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:34	PNS 21:47	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 2807 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:28	PNS 23:43	18%	5%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON