Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2634 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2634 ATL 07:25 → RDU 08:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1670 ATL 22:30 → RDU 00:04 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2634 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	RDU 08:53	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:43	RDU 10:10	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	RDU 11:43	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:12	RDU 12:42	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
F9 1168 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:40	RDU 08:11	12%	6%	1.5%	68%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:05	RDU 14:30	13%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:52	RDU 16:20	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:48	RDU 17:22	17%	4%	0.7%	79%
DL 1154 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:58	RDU 23:28	17%	4%	0.7%	61%
DL 2938 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	RDU 00:42	17%	4%	0.7%	66%
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:18	RDU 18:54	17%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 1518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	RDU 20:57	19%	4%	0.7%	74%
DL 3244 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:25	RDU 21:59	20%	4%	0.7%	74%
F9 1670 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:30	RDU 00:04	34%	13%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON