Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1462 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1462 ATL 07:36 → RIC 09:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1426 ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1462 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:36	RIC 09:12	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	RIC 11:56	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1437 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	RIC 14:05	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:46	RIC 16:23	13%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1263 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	RIC 00:51	15%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:45	RIC 17:26	17%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:12	RIC 18:53	17%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 1426 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:12	RIC 21:54	19%	4%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON