Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Reno on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 391 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:57	RNO 21:42	24%	6%	0.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	2h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest	7h 56m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15WN 209	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 10:05 → RNO 11:30WN 1007	8h 20m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607	8h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595	6h 54m	97%	85%
United Details →	ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51UA 340	2h 29m Denver	DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167	8h 09m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326	3h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest	9h 46m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	2h 29m Los Angeles	LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest	8h 30m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ATL 20:05 → DFW 21:36AA 1379	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:32 → RNO 23:58AA 1273	6h 53m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON