Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1089 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1089 ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1736 ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	RSW 09:43	10%	2%	12.1%	90%
DL 1153 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	RSW 12:11	19%	3%	16.0%	83%
DL 1196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	RSW 14:35	22%	4%	11.8%	85%
DL 1217 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	RSW 00:23	24%	5%	12.0%	74%
DL 1379 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	RSW 16:44	24%	6%	12.8%	72%
DL 1124 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	RSW 18:55	27%	6%	14.6%	74%
DL 1736 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:28	RSW 21:13	27%	6%	12.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON