Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 725 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 725 ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 819 ATL 19:49 → SAN 21:16 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SAN 09:26	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	SAN 13:08	16%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	SAN 11:34	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:36	SAN 17:00	21%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 680 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:10	SAN 19:35	24%	5%	0.7%	63%
DL 896 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:28	SAN 22:57	25%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:49	SAN 21:16	26%	5%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:10 → BNA 07:15WN 179	50m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → SAN 10:15WN 659	6h 05m	95%	80%
Southwest Details →	ATL 09:50 → AUS 11:10WN 4777	50m Austin	AUS 12:00 → SAN 12:50WN 389	6h 00m	79%	54%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	55m Las Vegas	LAS 12:57 → SAN 14:13DL 3741 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	83%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON