Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3011 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 3011 ATL 08:15 → SAV 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 527 ATL 17:50 → SAV 18:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SAV 09:16	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 940 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:07	SAV 13:12	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:23	SAV 10:27	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	SAV 14:38	11%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:03	SAV 16:14	12%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2860 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	SAV 23:53	15%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 3168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:40	SAV 22:49	15%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 3112 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:50	SAV 18:02	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 2425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:06	SAV 21:17	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SAV 18:59	16%	3%	0.8%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON