Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1523 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1523 ATL 07:35 → SDF 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2831 ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1523 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	SDF 08:54	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 1374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	SDF 10:29	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	SDF 11:51	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:22	SDF 15:42	13%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2624 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:02	SDF 00:26	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	SDF 17:49	18%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3093 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	SDF 21:17	19%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 2831 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	SDF 19:22	20%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON