Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 444 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 444 ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 834 ATL 19:22 → SEA 21:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	SEA 09:54	12%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 774 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	SEA 12:13	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 648 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	SEA 13:35	13%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 629 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	SEA 14:50	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
AS 377 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 07:00	SEA 09:26	15%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:38	SEA 16:49	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
AS 348 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 08:54	SEA 11:20	19%	3%	0.7%	69%
DL 472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	SEA 19:05	21%	4%	0.6%	70%
DL 903 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	SEA 23:59	25%	5%	0.6%	79%
DL 714 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SEA 20:11	25%	5%	0.6%	67%
AS 218 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 16:18	SEA 18:46	27%	6%	0.7%	62%
DL 834 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:22	SEA 21:48	28%	5%	0.6%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 09:59 → GEG 11:40DL 787	1h 20m Spokane	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	7h 26m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 34m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 43m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON