Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 809 ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2136 ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 809 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	SJC 11:30	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SJC 22:49	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 2136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SJC 18:52	17%	4%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:00 → AUS 07:20WN 4363	55m Austin	AUS 08:15 → SJC 09:45WN 398	6h 45m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	7h 08m	92%	78%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	1h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	87%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON