Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1757 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1757 ATL 08:05 → SJU 11:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2082 ATL 10:25 → SJU 14:16 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1757 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SJU 11:40	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:45	SJU 13:32	13%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	SJU 16:39	17%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 1861 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	SJU 22:29	20%	5%	0.9%	67%
DL 1791 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:59	SJU 20:45	22%	5%	0.9%	66%
F9 2082 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:25	SJU 14:16	30%	9%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON