Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 830 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 830 ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 660 ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 830 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SLC 10:14	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 387 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	SLC 12:10	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 663 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:56	SLC 13:50	13%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 423 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	SLC 15:51	16%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 526 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	SLC 17:18	18%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 653 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	SLC 20:02	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 453 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:25	SLC 00:26	22%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 660 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:34	SLC 21:37	22%	4%	0.6%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	57m Denver	DEN 15:55 → SLC 17:32DL 1623	5h 37m	79%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON