Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 904 ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 682 ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 743 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	SMF 19:53	21%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SMF 22:53	21%	4%	0.6%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 06:10 → LAS 07:15WN 209	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → SMF 10:05WN 860	6h 55m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	ATL 06:25 → DEN 07:30WN 2114	1h 30m Denver	DEN 09:00 → SMF 10:25WN 1739	7h 00m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	7h 01m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON