Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3196 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3196 ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1057 ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:17	SRQ 09:52	5%	2%	17.4%	94%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	SRQ 11:44	10%	3%	17.5%	85%
DL 2438 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	SRQ 14:13	12%	3%	17.5%	89%
DL 2997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:07	SRQ 00:45	14%	4%	15.8%	78%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:38	SRQ 17:17	17%	4%	17.5%	76%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:15	SRQ 18:53	17%	4%	17.7%	80%
DL 1057 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SRQ 22:52	18%	5%	16.0%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON