tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1902 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:35 STT 14:23 18% 4% 0.8% 85%
DL 1889 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:35 STT 15:20 20% 4% 0.8% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ATL 05:30 → IAD 07:20UA 641 55m Dulles IAD 08:15 → STT 12:20UA 1443 6h 50m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → ATL 05:00 → CLT 06:25AA 5507 · flown by PSA 51m Charlotte CLT 07:16 → STT 11:03AA 2431 6h 03m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:24 → CLT 07:55AA 5176 · flown by PSA 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432 7h 24m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15UA 532 1h 37m Houston IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908 8h 38m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943 10h 10m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → ATL 05:20 → MIA 07:15AA 1135 2h 52m Miami MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744 7h 39m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → ATL 09:00 → MIA 11:07AA 2526 2h 01m Miami MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738 7h 00m 95% 64%
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:40 → MCO 09:10WN 212 1h 40m Orlando MCO 10:50 → STT 13:50WN 4999 6h 10m 97% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON